NFC Team Overview, Win Totals, Divisional Picks, and Bets

NFC North

Detroit Lions

• +135 to win the division with a win total of 10.5

I was high on the Lions going into the offseason but being able to keep Ben Johnson put it over the top. The O-line is the best in the league and only got better with the signing of Kevin Zeitler. I look for Jameson Williams to finally break out this year providing another pass catching weapon. The only worry I have is the offensive depth.

This defense has improved. The addition of DJ Reader helps this run defense, I am still unsure when he will be available to play due to the torn quad. The secondary welcomes some much needed help from the Alabama rookie Terrion Arnold. The biggest question mark in the secondary is Kerby Joseph, who can’t even cover my 4-year-old son.

Even with a tougher division this year, I still have Detroit being the top team in the NFL this year. I have bet them to win the division and over 10.5 wins. I have them going 14-3.

Green Bay Packers

• +230 to win the division with a win total of 9.5

I am still standing on the hill that Jordan Love is not the guy that we saw last year, and the hill I’m standing on his quite lonely. The WR room is deep even with the injury concerns of Christian Watson. I think the Aaron Jones replacement of Josh Jacobs is a step back. The O-line depth is a major concern.

The defense got rid of Joe Berry, that within itself is an improvement. Under new DC Jeff Hafley, they will be moving to a 4-3 base which I feel fits this personnel better. There are a lot of pieces to put together in the secondary. The biggest question on this Packers team is the special teams.

The schedule isn’t that bad, there is a weird window of games between Week 13-16. If I wasn’t so in love with the Lions this year and my opinion of Jordan Love was in line with everybody else’s opinion, I would be betting them to win the division. I have them going 12-5.

Chicago Bears

• +340 to win the division with a win total of 8.5

There are a lot of weapons for the top pick, Caleb Williams, which is rare for a top overall pick. I do have concerns about Williams as a QB. He holds on to the ball way too long forcing him to make off schedule throws which he got away with in college. If this continues this negates the Keenan Allen addition due to the fact he’s much more of a timing receiver. DJ Moore and rookie Rome Odunze will benefit from this tendency of Williams the most. While the OC hire of Shane Waldron was a good step for the Bears, I don’t know if that balances out the poor coaching of Eberflus. If it wasn’t for Dennis Allen in New Orleans, Efberflus would be on the board for first coach to be fired.

On defense, they brought in Kevin Byard to go along with Tremaine Edmunds and Montez Sweat. The outlook for this defense is very good. Jaylon Johnson was rated the highest coverage corner last year by PFF. The 2nd half of the season was a good one for the Bears defense and I think they will continue this throughout the season.

The first 3 games are going to tell us a lot about this Bears team, vTitans, @Teaxans, @Colts. They also have a rough 2nd half of the schedule. In Weeks 13-16 they have, @Lions, @49ers, @Vikings on a Monday night leaving them on short rest vLions. I will be betting the under win total of 8.5. I have them going 6-11.

Minnesota Vikings

• +1000 to win the division with a win total of 7.5

The loss of JJ McCarthy forced me to rerun all the numbers for the season. I had them 10-7 prior to the injury and now I have them at 3-14. That’s how big this injury was in my eyes. Now they have Sam Darnold as their starting QB. They still have the best receiver in the league, Justin Jefferson and I do like the upgrade at RB with Aaron Jones. I just can’t see Sam Darnold doing anything positive. I also don’t see Hockenson coming back anytime soon. Jordan Addison is hurt and also will probably face some sort of suspension.

I trust DC Brian Flores, but I don’t think that he has enough pieces. They added Stephon Gilmore but he may be toast. I like the LBs, especially Pace. Flores will have the defense over performing I have no doubt about that. I just don’t see the offense giving them any relief.

The Vikings have one of the toughest schedules in the league. Starting in Week 2 they have vSF, vHOU, @GB, vNYJ and then off the bye they are home vDET. I don’t have much faith in the Vikings this year after the McCarthy injury. Even though I have them going 3-14, I am staying away from the win total bet of under 7.5 due to the coaching staff.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

• -190 to win the division with a win total of 11.5

As of now, the 49ers are favored in every game. There are several questions I have, one of them being what this O-line is going to look like. They have the potential to be extremely poor. This is not going to help Brock Purdy, which I’m still not sold on. Another thing that’s not helping is the Aiyuk contract situation. As of now, they haven’t come to an agreement although I think they have to and they will. Without Aiyuk opposing defenses will be able to stack the box. With that being said, they still have the best player in the league with CMC.

The 49ers replaced Wilks at DC with Nick Sorensen but the schemes should remain the same.  I think the addition of De’Vondre Campbell will bolster the already pretty solid defense. They also added Javon Hargrave to replace the loss of Armstead. The secondary will remain the weakness, outside of Charvarius Ward.

San Fransico has a much easier schedule than one would think. I think they start off 5-1 and set it to cruise control into the playoffs. The model has them going 11-6.

LA Rams

• +350 to win the division with a win total of 8.5

There’s not much to say about the Rams offense other than can they stay healthy. The O-line got better bringing in Jonah Jackson. The WRs are studs and the RB back room got better with the rookie Blake Corum.

A tough loss for the defense with the retirement of one of the GOATs Aaron Donald. But they did fill some other holes bringing in Tre White and drafting a pair of Noles in Jared Verse and Braden Fiske. This defense always seems to over perform, I am curious to see if the loss of Aaron Donald changes that.

I like how the schedule sets up for LA. I will be betting them over 8.5 wins. I have them going 10-7.

Arizona Cardinals

• +1400 to win the division with a win total of 7.5

Kyler has always been at his best with a true number 1 WR. Drafting Marvin Harrison Jr gives him just that. I like this coaching staff and I like the roster that is finally coming together on offense. I like McBride at the TE spot and I like the combo of James Connor and rookie Trey Benson in the backfield. Getting Kyler a full offseason in this scheme will help improve this offense from last year alone.

The defense is a true concern for the Cardinals. Theres nothing up front on the D-line or at the LB position. They will have to rely heavily on the secondary to make some plays. They are a few players away on defense from truly contending in this division.

I see the upside in Arizona. The schedule is tough due to the division. I have them going 8-9.

Seattle Seahawks

• +800 to win the division with a win total of 7.5

I like the hire of HC Mike Macdonald. But this O-line is one of the worst in the league. Geno Smith was one of the worst QBs under pressure but one of the best with a clean pocket. I don’t see this O-line keeping the pocket clean. They still have dangerous weapons with Metcalf and JSN along with a solid RB duo of Walker and Charbonnet.

With Macdonald as HC and the improvements made at LB, I think the defense is set to improve. The defensive front should be better with Reed, Hankins, and Williams. I just don’t know what to think of this secondary. With Baltimore Macdonald had some players he could use to fit his scheme, I don’t see that yet in Seattle.

With the outlook I have on the other teams in this division and nothing on this team to really change my mind, I have to have them going 4-13.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

• -120 to win the division with a win total of 10.5

Even with the loss of two Philly stalwarts in Fletcher Cox and Jason Kelce to retirement, Howie Rosman once again reloads. I thought for sure they were going to get Judon from the Patriots, but they will have to settle with the key additions of Saquon Barkley, Mekhi Becton, CJ Garner-Johnson, Devin White, Jahan Dotson, and rookies Quinyon Mithcell and Cooper Dejean, lol. Once again, Howie doing Howie things.

There was talk that Sirianni and some of the offensive talent did not get along last year. Maybe the cliché coaching speak wore off a little, I know if I was on that team I would have shut that “growing the flower buy watering the dirt” bs down day 1. Look they are grown men, I think the work ethic of Jalen Hurts and the others don’t need that stuff. The right side of the offensive line is a brick wall, and the other side is not too far behind. I am interested to see how the Jurgens plays at center, it has been a while since we’ve seen a new guy at that position in Philly. The late addition of Dotson gives a much-needed 3rd option at WR. In my opinion, Dotson was the best receiving threat over in Washington so I’m curious to see how the targets spread out over the returning pass catchers and the new ones, including Barkley. The biggest question I have for the Eagles offense is if Kellen Moore will be able to answer the pass protection issues they had against the blitz last year and if he can stay away from being so predictable like they were last year.

There is a bit of a new look on defense. It all starts with the new DC Vic Fangio. It may take some time with the Fangio multi style defense of half gaps and zone quarter matches out of different defensive shells. The main thing about his complex system is that you need guys that can win upfront which they do. I’m not in love with the LBs but the addition of Devin White should help with this style of defense. I think the rookie Mitchell will be best at slot corner but I’m not sure if they are willing to play a young guy in that spot in this system.

There has not been a repeat NFC East division winner since 2003. With Dallas winning last year I’d like to bet Philly, but at -120 I will stay away from betting it. The schedule is favorable, they don’t have any team coming off a bye. I’d also like to bet them to win the Super Bowl but with a Week 5 bye I worry about them fizzling out at the end. I have them going 11-6.

Dallas Cowboys

• +175 to win the division with a win total of 10.5

Not a lot went on in Dallas this offseason. I think the stress of contract situations had them a little hesitant to pull the trigger on some talent that I thought they would go after. There isn’t a lot of depth on offense, and if something happens to CeeDee Lamb, this team is done. Lamb hasn’t been practicing, which gets me worried about those hamstrings. The offensive line will have two rookies starting at LT and C and I can see this line being bad. The RB room is laughable and won’t add much.

Not a lot has changed on the defensive side. Micah Parsons will still be causing chaos, and I look for Diggs to lead this secondary. I’m not sure that this offense will be able to score like they have been in the past which will take away some of that aggressiveness on defense.

I can see the situation in Dallas getting bad. With some big time contracts coming up, and Jerry Jones not keeping his mouth shut, this could lead to some issues. They have won 12 games for 3 seasons now, but I think that stops this year.  The model has them going 10-7 but I think the lack of depth and not being able to front run due to the lack of being able to score, will have this season for the Cowboys going south. I will be betting the under win total of 10 and looking for alt numbers down to 8 wins.

Washington Commanders

• +1100 to win the division with a win total of 6.5

I like the steps that the Commanders took this offseason with their additions of a good rookie class led by Jayden Daniels. But I am confused with the recent trade of Jahan Dotson and the rumors of Jonathan Allen being on his way out. I like the fit of Daniels and new OC Kliff Kingsbury. I think the RB duo of Robinson and Ekeler will be helpful for a rookie QB. But the lack of playmakers, outside of McLaurin, has me worried.

I wasn’t a fan of the Dan Quinn hire but I can see the outline that they have in place. He brought over a new DC in Joe Whitt and the Quinn-Whitt duo will be focusing on the defensive side of the ball and letting Kliff do his thing on the other side. The problem is, who do they have on defense? I like the defensive front, and I think the LBs are solid. But they couldn’t stop anything in the passing game, and they did nothing to address it in the offseason.

It’s not that bad of a schedule but I think the defensive woes once again will be back in Washington. I think the pace of play will be fast and a poor defense will lead to me betting the over on game totals throughout the year. I have them going 8-9.

New York Giants

• +2000 to win the division with a win total of 6.5

I love the addition of pass rusher Brian Burns and the rookie WR Malik Nabers. But the biggest issue with the NY Giants is still there in Daniel Jones. The WR core is young, but I do like the upside. I’m not impressed with the O-line. The Singletary signing was confusing but that may have been a signing out of necessity. Looks like we will be waiting another year for this Daboll offense to take off and we’ve been waiting for some time now.

Adding Burns to Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux, the Giants may have the best defensive front in the NFC East. The secondary is awful and will have to rely on pressure. They did draft a bunch of depth on this side of the ball, but I don’t think it’s enough to compete.

The schedule doesn’t give this team any breaks this year. There aren’t any tough spots but there are also no favorable spots. I have them going 6-11.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

• -130 to win the division with a win total of 9.5

I think the best move the Falcons made this offseason was getting rid of Desmond Ridder. Coupling that with bringing in two QBs that were better than him in Kirk Cousins and rookie Michael Penix just adds to the positivity of the move. While I’m not sold on Penix, I have questions about his arm strength, to the eye, his balls don’t have that zip that you see out of legit QBs. We all know what Kirko Chains can do. I like the weapons they have in Robinson, London, and Kyle Pitts. I also like the addition of Darnell Mooney. Bringing in Zac Robinson from the Rams may be one of the most underrated coaching moves this year.

The Judon pickup actually bumped them up ahead of Tampa Bay for me. They needed some more help rushing the passer which he brings. AJ Terrell may be the best corner that nobody talks about. Bringing in Jessie Bates and Justing Simmons to sure up the back end is also huge. I am very optimistic about this Falcon’s defense, and it has been some time since I have been able to say that.

The Falcons have a rough start with Philly on Monday night in Week 2 and KC on Sunday night in Week 3 but other than that, their schedule is a joke. I look for them to drop a few early and hopefully we get a better number on the division, I can’t bet them to win the division at -130. I have them going 10-7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• +333 to win the division with a win total of 7.5

The biggest loss that the Bucs had this offseason was losing now HC of the Panthers Dave Canales. They essentially brought everybody back to run it back on offense. I have a lot of questions, can Mayfield continue to improve, when will Evans fall off, will they be able to establish a run game? I also think they are missing that one true playmaker.

The defense is just meh. There isn’t really a glaring weakness but there really isn’t a dominate strength either. I like Winfield and Vita Vea and Tyone-Shoyinka can get after the QB. After that, there’s really nothing that stands out.

I think overall it’s a step back for this Bucs team this year. They have a favorable schedule and get two rookie QBs early in the season at home, Week 1 Washington and Week 3 Denver. I have them going 10-7.

New Orleans Saints

• +550 to win the division with a win total of 7.5

The offensive line is awful, and Derek Carr can’t handle pressure. Adding to problems its another OC for Carr. However, the Saints still have Olave and Kamara which will provide much needed play breaking ability. I think opposing defenses have learned that they have to at least cover Shaheed. There is really nothing else left to say about this offense.

The defense for the Saints will be good as long as they can hold up for due to this offense. The secondary will continue to be good, and I like the addition of Willie Gay for the LBs. The defensive front will be versatile in its ability to stop the run and be just as good at bringing pressure. They also brought in Chase Young to rotate in on passing downs.

Dennis Allen to be the first coach fired is on my betting board. I’m not sure how he still has a job. The defense will provide opportunities for the offense, I just do not see them being able to cash in. The model has them going 8-9.

Carolina Panthers

• +1300 to win the division with a win total of 5.5

It’s been a while since I have liked something the Panthers have done. The hiring of new HC Dave Canales was a huge move. We have seen what Canales can do with QBs. He has rejuvenated Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. He has his work cut out for him with Bryce Young. They have brought in some help for Young, with Diontae Johnson and drafting Xavier Legette. Both these guys can get separation which was missing last year from the WRs. They also brought in some O-line help with the addition of Robert Hunt.

The loss of Brian Burns hurts this defense a lot. They still have some solid pieces and added some good role players. I think A’Shawn Robinson will help this defensive front a lot. I’m not sure what the Panthers are expecting to get out of Clowney. I think his play was elevated last year due to coaching. I do like this secondary led by Jaycee Horn. They have a lot of guys they can rotate until they find the player to fill the opposite side of Horn.

Carolina has the weakest schedule. In transparency I do have a bet for over 4.5 but at 5.5 I don’t think I would bet it. I still think it’s about one year too early for them to compete for the division. But as soon as the numbers come out for next year, I will be betting them for the division. The model has them going 3-14.